Airbnb or long term let? What actually pays more in Nairobi

We get this question on every onboarding call. The honest answer is that it depends on the property, but a 90 second answer is this: in 2026, a well-positioned 1 or 2 bed in Kilimani, Westlands or Lavington will gross roughly 1.7 to 2.0 times the long-term equivalent on Airbnb, after fees. A standard 3 bed in Kileleshwa or Karen will earn about the same either way and is usually better long-term. A family compound in Runda or Muthaiga should never go on Airbnb at all. Read on for why.

Real numbers from the last twelve months

Below are anonymised but real cases from properties we manage in Nairobi between April 2025 and March 2026. All figures are after every fee, every tax, and every vacancy gap, in USD at the rate the landlord actually received.

Case 1: Two-bed in Kilimani, KES 180,000 long-term equivalent

On long-term, this unit grossed KES 2.16 million annually, netted USD 13,400 after the 10% management fee, MRI tax, and service charge.

On Airbnb at an average daily rate of USD 95 and 71% occupancy, the same unit grossed USD 24,600. After the 20% management fee, cleaning costs, the 1.5% Tourism Levy, VAT pass-through, and a 4% allowance for booking platform fees, the landlord netted USD 16,100. About 20% better than long-term, but with materially more operational complexity.

Case 2: Three-bed in Kileleshwa

Long-term: KES 280,000 a month, netted USD 21,000 a year.

Airbnb attempt: average daily rate of USD 130, 52% occupancy. Three beds in Kileleshwa appeals to families and longer leisure stays, both of which are lower-volume and lower-rate per night than the corporate one and two beds in Kilimani. Net was USD 19,800. The landlord moved back to long-term after eight months.

Case 3: Four-bed compound in Runda

Long-term lease to a corporate diplomat tenant: USD 5,400 a month, netted USD 56,000 a year over a three year lease.

Airbnb potential, modelled but never executed, would have been roughly USD 38,000 a year and a major risk to the property condition and the neighbour relationships. Some properties are designed for long-term tenancy and lose money the moment they go onto a nightly platform.

Some properties are designed for long-term tenancy and lose money the moment they go onto a nightly platform.

When Airbnb wins

Airbnb beats long-term consistently in Nairobi when these conditions hold:

• One or two bed apartment in Kilimani, Westlands, Lavington, Riverside, or Parklands. These are the neighbourhoods with the strongest corporate, NGO, and medical-tourism short-stay demand.
• Within a 15 minute drive of a major hospital cluster (Aga Khan, MP Shah, Nairobi Hospital). Medical tourism is the single most underrated demand source in Nairobi short-stay.
• Building permits short-stay activity. A growing number of Nairobi apartment management committees have banned or restricted Airbnb. Confirm before listing.
• Light, modern interior, ideally with a balcony, fast WiFi, blackout curtains, full work-from-home setup.
• Owner is comfortable with a small but real risk profile: guest damage, neighbour complaints, the occasional difficult review.

When long-term wins

• Three-plus bed family unit. Demand is from corporate relocators on multi-year leases. Average daily rate on Airbnb is high but occupancy is low, so net rarely beats long-term.
• Karen, Runda, Muthaiga, Lower Kabete. Buildings and neighbourhoods are not set up for transient guests, and security culture often prohibits short-stay.
• Buildings without 24/7 reception or concierge. Airbnb economics depend on smooth check-in. Owner-managed key handovers from 6,000 miles away rarely work.
• Tenant pipeline already strong. If the unit re-lets in under 30 days every cycle, the long-term yield is hard to beat.

The four properties that should never go on Airbnb

1. Properties in compounds with shared common areas (pool, gym, security gate) where neighbours have established objections. The cost of escalating disputes vastly exceeds any additional revenue.
2. Buildings with explicit short-stay bans in the management committee bylaws. The management committee can fine you, restrict access, and ultimately refuse to renew the unit’s good standing.
3. Heritage homes or properties with high-value finishes that cannot be replaced if damaged. The math always loses on a single broken object.
4. Anything where the owner’s personal use is part of the calculation. Mixed-use Airbnb almost always underperforms because the lockout periods break algorithm visibility.

The hybrid model nobody talks about

For a small subset of properties, neither pure Airbnb nor pure long-term is correct. The hybrid is a 30 to 90 day corporate stay model: priced like Airbnb, contracted like long-term, sourced through corporate relocation channels (NGO, embassy, oil and gas rotations, tech consulting).

Hybrid pricing tends to land at 1.3 to 1.5 times long-term rent, with much lower turnover than Airbnb and no platform fees. It works in Westlands, Kilimani, Lavington and select Karen properties. We run it on roughly 15% of the portfolio.

How to actually decide

Three steps. First, verify your building rules. Second, run the property through the yield calculator on both modes. The calculator uses live Nairobi short-stay comparables and live long-term rents per neighbourhood, and shows net after every fee. Third, talk to a manager who runs both. Numbers on paper are necessary but not sufficient. Operational fit is what determines whether the higher-yield model survives contact with reality.

If you want our specific recommendation for your unit, send the address on this form and we will model both modes against the actual building, the actual neighbourhood, and the actual unit specifics. No charge for the analysis.